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Recommended VTA Scenario
Mr. Burns commented that this part of the meeting is for discussion of the ¼ Cent Sales Tax Expenditure Plan. The Expenditure Plan is the updated plan contained in the December 23, 2005 Board of Directors Memorandum based on the new sales tax projections. Mr. Burns emphasized that staff has used the same methodology throughout the entire process but with different inputs. Mr. Burns stated that there are no projects in the completion plan at this time but noted that the Expenditure Plan will continue to include and maintain a completion plan in the event that conditions change. Mr. Burns commented that the Expenditure Plan is modeled after the 1996 Measure B Transportation Improvement Program (MBTIP), which was very successful.
Mr. Burns continued that the Expenditure Plan along with the projections of taxable sales for VTA provided by Steven Levy, Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy (CCSCE), were presented to all VTA Advisory and Standing Committees in January 2006. Mr. Burns noted that a summary of all the comments received from the committees, responses to questions, and correspondence has been included in the materials presented at the Friday, January 27, 2006 VTA Board of Directors Workshop Meeting. Mr. Burns noted that the presentation was presented to Santa Clara County Board of Supervisors, the cities of Morgan Hill and Milpitas. Mr. Burns stated that staff is scheduled to provide presentations to the cities of Gilroy, Cupertino, Monte Sereno, and Los Gatos over the next couple of weeks. Mr. Burns noted that Mr. Collins will briefly review three of the presentation slides to provide a summary of what is in the Recommended VTA Scenario then the meeting will move into discussion.
Mr. Collins provided a power point presentation titled, “VTA Scenario January 2006”, Page 13 – VTA Scenario with New Projections. Staff issued a new Expenditure Plan in December 2005. Mr. Collins continued that the current plan:
- completes all 2000 Measure A Projects,
- provides a positive ending balance of $537 million,
- maintains Board Policy of 15 percent reserves for VTA,
- advances BART Project by two years to December 2016,
- advances Light Rail to Eastridge by 2012,
- advances Light Rail to Nieman by 2017,
- advances Light Rail to Los Gatos by 2012,
- accommodates Single Car Light Rail on Santa Clara/Alum Rock by 2021, if mode is selected as preferred alternative.
Mr. Collins referenced Page 14 – VTA Scenario with New Projections.
The VTA Scenario:
- restores prior 10 percent funding cut to Caltrain,
- completes Caltrain Electrification by 2018,
- provides for Caltrain Service Improvements,
- provides for 8.4 miles of Caltrain double tracking in the South County by 2010,
- completes Dumbarton Rail by 2011,
- provides for Altamont Commuter Express (ACE) Upgrades between
2014 and 2025,
- completes Airport People Mover (APM) by 2018,
- initiates Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) Projects on Line 22, Monterey Road, and Stevens Creek by 2011.
Mr. Collins referenced Page 15 - VTA Scenario Includes New Projects. The Recommended VTA Scenario includes:
- new $718 million in local streets and roads, county roads and bicycle and pedestrian path improvement program,
- new $130 million BRT project in Sunnyvale/Cupertino,
- increases in current VTA service up to 24 percent by 2020,
- new Senior/Disabled Program about $2 million a year over the 30 year program, which equates to $90 million,
- $2.7 billion in BART operating subsidy to 2038.
Board Member Kennedy queried about Caltrain projects in the Expenditure Plan.
Mr. Collins responded that the 10 percent funding cut to Caltrain was restored and Caltrain Electrification from Tamien to Gilroy is back in the Expenditure Plan.
Board Member Chu directed attention to the December 23, 2005 Board Memorandum, Page 6 of 7 and queried about the completion date for the Capitol Expressway Light Rail to Nieman project. Mr. Collins apologized for the typographical error in the memorandum and noted that the Capitol Expressway Light Rail to Nieman project is completed by 2017.
Board Member Gage noted that the schedule of revenues coming in is very impressive but noted his concern regarding how accurate the figures are. Board Member Gage stressed the importance of having a backup plan in the event that the revenue assumptions are not what everyone anticipated. Board Member Gage commented that once the projects start moving forward it will be very difficult to place those projects on hold. Board Member Gage asked if we are sure that the revenue coming in will cover all the projects that everyone would like completed.
Mr. Collins responded that part of the process is to include an annual review of revenues and expenditures. Mr. Collins stressed the importance that the ending balance be maintained at a higher level early on within the Expenditure Plan. Mr. Collins continued that several Board Members queried about the revenue assumptions received from Mr. Levy, CCSCE, but noted that staff is starting to see increases in the revenue now. Mr. Collins directed attention to the VTA Scenario January 2006, Slide 10 - Annual Sales Tax Projection and noted that only eight years of sales tax revenues were adjusted over the 30-year projections.
Mr. Collins referenced Slide 11 – New Projections by VTA and noted that staff has not made adjustments to FY 2006 and FY 2007 so both years are 4.8 percent growth rate. Mr. Collins stated that in FY 2008 the growth rate has increased to 5.7 percent, which is a .8 percent increase. Staff has made those adjustments to match up with the new percent change in midpoint growth rate received from the CCSCE. Mr. Collins noted that overall VTA’s percent change in growth rate range from .7 percent to 1.2 percent over a period of eight years. Then VTA drops back to the 4.8 percent for the remaining 20 years from 2016 – 2036, which in the past has been VTA’s overall average of the ups and downs in sales tax revenues; therefore, staff does not consider the projections as aggressive. Mr. Collins stressed the importance of making prudent projections and indicated that staff will continue to utilize the process of an annual review of revenues and expenditures to make adjustments to the program.
Board Member Campos queried about why the Santa Clara/Alum Rock project timeline has been pushed out. Board Member Campos stated that she thought that the Santa Clara/Alum Rock project would link to the completion of the BART project.
Mr. Collins responded that the Santa Clara/Alum Rock project is currently being studied from Downtown San Jose.
Board Member Campos queried about the length of time required to complete the
Santa Clara/Alum Rock project. Mr. Collins responded that the Santa Clara/Alum Rock project would take approximately 5 years to complete.
Board Member Campos queried about the timeline to start work on the Santa Clara/Alum Rock project from one end so that it links to the completion of the BART project. Board Member Campos asked staff if they have considered this scenario and referenced the Downtown East Valley (DTEV) Policy Advisory Board’s (PAB) previous request that staff to look into the scenario. Mr. Collins responded that the plan was rail and it would be five years after BART. Mr. Collins continued that Santa Clara/Alum Rock would probably start around the time that the BART project is finished. Mr. Collins stated that staff has not looked at a hybrid alternative but staff has the cost the entire budget by Downtown San Jose in this scenario.
Board Member Campos requested that the DTEV PAB receive a copy of the evaluation of both scenarios so that the DTEV PAB could review the information. Chairperson Chavez stated that Board Member Campos is referring to the DTEV PAB’s request for an evaluation of both alternative scenarios. Chairperson Chavez commented that the request was to address concerns regarding the use of light rail to the point of the Five Wounds Church since it is a very narrow area. Chairperson Chavez expressed concern and noted that the DTEV PAB believed that staff was reviewing the request based on the direction of the DTEV PAB. Mr. Burns responded that his understanding was that the next step in the process was the expanded public outreach but noted that he will forward the DTEV PAB request to staff for response.
Alternate Board Member McHugh queried about when the VTA Board of Directors will make a final decision regarding the preferred transportation mode for the Santa Clara/Alum Rock project. Alternate Board Member McHugh stated that the DTEV PAB supports the Single Car Light Rail alternative. Mr. Collins commented that there is one year left for the community outreach and evaluation of the alternative so the final decision is about 12 months away regarding the preferred alternative selection for the project.
Chairperson Chavez stated that the reason VTA is conducting the extensive public outreach is related to the circulation of the Environmental Impact Report (EIR), which is currently underway.
Board Member Williams expressed concern regarding safety issues along the corridor between San Jose, Gilroy, and Morgan Hill. Board Member Williams referenced a recent accident involving a child hit by a train. Board Member Williams queried about resources to address pedestrian crossovers to ensure safety for individuals. Board Member Williams asked if any of the scenarios include project funds for pedestrian crossovers or bridges to address safety issues and concerns. Mr. Burns responded “no” in terms of a specific project. Pedestrian crossovers are not itemized in the Expenditure Plan. Mr. Burns continued that projects such as this could be funded from the Bicycle and Pedestrian Improvement Program or Caltrain Improvement Program. Mr. Burns noted that staff is seeking federal funding for that specific project but that project is beyond this particular Expenditure Plan. Board Member Williams thanked staff for the information and stressed the importance of funding projects that address safety issues and concerns. Board Member Williams noted that one of VTA’s highest priorities is safety.
Board Member Williams queried about the projections. Board Member Williams noted that the CCSCE provides both low and high projections and asked how staff knows what projections to use. Mr. Contreras responded that the CCSCE provides two projections, one projection is moderate and the other is conservative; therefore, staff takes the midpoint.
Board Member Williams asked if staff has a confidence level based on experience and if staff believes that we are on the right path. Mr. Contreras responded that VTA is conservative in terms of these projections. Mr. Burns noted that VTA has not changed the methodology that was used throughout this process.
Board Member Sandoval asked for clarification regarding the Santa Clara/Alum Rock project and if the DTEV PAB is looking at the EIR for both possible transportation mode alternatives. Chairperson Chavez responded that staff in advance of the community process presented a recommendation to the DTEV PAB with the preference for BRT along Alum Rock. The DTEV PAB expressed concern that the public outreach process was still going on so everyone agreed to move forward with a very informed, intense, and educational process for that entire corridor.
Board Member Sandoval stated that the EIR is reviewing both alternative positions for the project and noted staff’s recommendation of BRT but the DTEV PAB’s recommendation is Single Car Light Rail. Chairperson Chavez responded “yes” that is correct.
Board Member Sandoval queried about the BRT projects listed in the Expenditure Plan. Ann Jamison, Congestion Management and Planning Deputy Director, responded that the original outline for potential BRT corridors on the Expenditure Plan were essentially preliminary lines drawn on the map. Ms. Jamison noted a request to staff to look at all the corridors and determine the ones that were appropriate for advancing in a future timeframe with money that was available so staff is in the process of conducting an analysis at this point.
Board Member Sandoval queried about BRT lines going through Coyote Valley and if it would be part of the service. Ms. Jamison responded that part of the detailed analysis would be to get a handle on the routes but at this point in time it is simply shown as a line from San Jose along Monterey Road into Morgan Hill towards the Gilroy area. Ms. Jamison stated that there is no specific timeline or route alignment but staff will look at this proposal.
Board Member Sandoval referenced the Sunnyvale/Cupertino BRT line and asked how does the cost of that line compare to the cost of the Monterey/Stevens Creek BRT line. Board Member Sandoval queried about a way to bring the Sunnyvale/Cupertino BRT on line prior to 2021. Mr. Collins responded that it requires three years to bring the project on line. Mr. Collins commented on the cost and noted that staff used the other project and factored in the mileage items into the conceptual or preliminary engineering on the Sunnyvale/Cupertino BRT line project. Once staff has a better idea of what the scope of the project is then staff will be able to nail down the schedule and ultimate cost of the of the project.
Board Member Sandoval asked how the scope and cost of the project would change by having a line on the map. Mr. Collins responded that conceptual or preliminary engineering construction costs associated with the project are important to know since it is difficult to determine the costs and other components related to the project. Mr. Collins noted that important details and components need to be worked out so staff took the estimate on the length for the line basis for BRT and multiplied the number by the length form the cities of Sunnyvale to Cupertino then arrived at the numbers at this juncture for the project.
Board Member Perry queried about the operating costs and asked if operating costs are expected to grow by inflation. Mr. Contreras responded “yes”.
Board Member Perry asked if operating costs are expected to grow by inflation, is the plan to hold employee wages constant for the next 30 years? Mr. Contreras responded that there could be decreases and increases within 3.5 percent.
Board Member Perry asked if the money is growing by inflation then staff is either holding employee wages constant, reducing staff, or there is a third option. Mr. Tucker responded that staff can provide more specific information to the Board Members but staff has anticipated labor growth year to year relative to wages and benefits. Mr. Tucker referenced the Transit Planning and Operations (TP&O) Committee Meeting discussion related to the organization providing services at a lower cost.
Board Member Perry stated that in real terms the amount of money spent on operating is decreasing and VTA has not been able to achieve that in the past. Board Member Perry noted that the ways to achieve this is if VTA fixes employee wages for the next 30 years or reduces staff. Board Member Perry asked if VTA is going to reduce staff, have a decline in employee wages over the next 30 years, or both and asked where the money is coming from if not from those actions.
Board Member Perry queried about the total costs to the Expenditure Plan to get Caltrain from the County line down to Lick with grade separation and pedestrian crossings. Board Member Perry asked if VTA could afford to do that with significant service increases. Mr. Burns requested clarification on the line limits for the grade separation. Board Member Perry stated to Lick, or wherever it made sense to grade separate and if it made sense to go to Diridon Station.
Board Member Perry noted that the projected growth in real per capita in sales tax is
1.3 percent per year over the past 25 years. Historically it has been 4 percent over the 25 years. Board Member Perry requested that staff explain Mr. Levy’s growth rate and why VTA’s is eight times more than the historic. Mr. Contreras responded that staff will get back to the Board Members with the information.
Chairperson Chavez requested that staff get back to the Board of Directors with a response to Member Perry’s questions.
Board Member Perry asked what is the cost of grade separation from the San Mateo County line to a reasonable point, such as Tamien. Mr. Burns responded that staff will provide a range with a totally full grade separated design with some variations off that.
Board Member Kerr stated that Caltrain is the Peninsula’s BART and noted the need for Caltrain to be fully grade separated all the way through.
Board Member Kerr clarified the real wage issues and noted that benefits are growing at a substantially higher rate, health care is two or three times that amount, and California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) contribution for pensions is going to have higher rates. Board Member Kerr continued that if VTA were to use an inflation adjusted number for wages it would essentially be projecting declining real wages, the take home portion of the paycheck, and this is what Board Member Perry is referring to.
Board Member Kerr stated that it is more appropriate to hold take home pay in constant real terms and to provide some appropriate guidance for total compensation for the higher rate of inflation. Board Member Kerr queried about the $1.5 billion in revenue and asked if the money comes from sources other than the increase of the ¼ cent sales tax. Mr. Contreras responded “yes” that is correct. Board Member Kerr asked if the $1.5 billion is in 2003 dollars. Mr. Contreras responded “no”. Board Member Kerr asked if this is $2 billion in year of collection dollars. Mr. Contreras responded “yes”.
Board Member Kerr asked how does the windfall from VTA’s existing revenue streams compare to the amount available to VTA from the potential ¼ cent sales tax. Board Member Kerr asked if VTA’s projections indicate that there would be a windfall or increase in available dollars over the next 30 years without passing an additional sales tax. Mr. Contreras responded “yes” that is correct.
Board Member Kerr stated that at various times in the past VTA has looked at projections to try and determine if VTA could make the figures work without a ¼ cent sales tax. Board Member Kerr asked if there is a possible scenario that could reflect the increased revenue due to a better economy combined with the financial restraints implemented by the Board of Directors and the organization, which would allow VTA to complete most of the projects without a sales tax increase. Mr. Contreras responded that the $2.2 billion is comprised of several pools of taxes including the 1976 ½ cent tax, Transit Development Act (TDA) ¼ cent tax, and 2000 ½ cent tax, which comprise the total of $1.7 billion in the year of collection.
Board Member Kerr commented that the new projections provide the organization with a potential $1.7 billion in revenue for the next 30 years. He asked, if VTA combined financial restraint with an improving economy, what would VTA be able to accomplish? Mr. Burns asked if Board Member Kerr was requesting that staff go back to the September 2005 Scenario and run that with the new projections. Board Member Kerr responded “yes”.
Mr. Burns asked if Board Member Kerr wanted to see a scenario that excluded money for all of the new programs. Board Member Kerr responded “yes” since these new programs and projects were not discussed last fall. Mr. Burns responded that staff could provide the information to the Board of Directors.
Chairperson Chavez recommended that staff distribute the Ad-Hoc Financial Stability final report recommendations and noted that the information is very important for the new incoming Board Members.
Alternate Board Member McHugh left the meeting at 10:52 a.m.
Board Member Kennedy expressed concern regarding a fatality and an individual who was critically injured last week on the non-grade separation in Morgan Hill. Board Member Kennedy stressed the importance of grade separations or total blockage to address the issues and stop these type of accidents.
Board Member Kennedy thanked staff for the presentation to Morgan Hill City Council. Board Member Kennedy noted that the goal of Morgan Hill is to find a solution that works for as much as of the County as possible. The Morgan Hill City Council would like to see more specific statements and language on the issues in the VTA Scenario. For example, the language mentions funding for expressways in the County but the South County does not have expressways. Board Member Kennedy suggested that specific language be included in the Scenario in the form of a footnote with South County alternatives that are equivalent to the projects in the other parts of the County. Board Member Kennedy stated that a footnote in the Scenario would help to build support for the plan. He also indicated that the language regarding the Single Car Light Rail in the Santa Clara/Alum Rock project was important to provide a better level of comfort that those parts of the region are included in the plan.
Member Kennedy asked staff to look at what other entities use as their source of sales tax projections and other fund sources so that VTA could use this information as a basis of comparison for establishing projections.
Mark Brodsky, City of Monte Sereno Mayor and Policy Advisory Committee (PAC) Member, requested that staff include a copy of “Vote Against Another ¼ Cent Tax Scenario - Build All Measure A Without a Tax Increase” in the Board presentation.
Mayor Brodsky commented that at the last PAC Meeting a transit advocate complained that the scenario chose the most expensive and impractical route for BART. Mayor Brodsky asked that the Board consider new improved technology instead of trying to work with a “40 year old system”. Mayor Brodsky noted that all the 2000 Measure A Program projects can be completed without another tax increase if BART is placed on the most efficient route.
Margaret Okuzumi, Bay Rail Alliance, requested to see the list of projects included on the completion plan. Ms. Okuzumi referenced a bill pending in the Assembly that would exempt a portion of business-to-business sale tax, which would decrease the amount of sales tax revenues coming in. Ms. Okuzumi urged the Board to seriously consider the negative impact of this legislation on sales tax revenues if the bill passes. Ms. Okuzumi urged the Board to review her presentation included in the comment materials, which summarizes an alternative to extending BART to San Jose that will provide service directly to the airport, serving more, and requiring fewer transfers to the airport under the current VTA Scenario.
Vice Chairperson Chu congratulated Yoriko Kishimoto for being elected as Vice Mayor of the City of Palo Alto.
Ms. Kishimoto, City of Palo Alto Vice Mayor and PAC Member, expressed appreciation to the Board of Directors for the “Full Participation, Full Information” Initiative. Ms. Kishimoto stressed the importance of the topic since everyone wants their visionary and strategic investments included in the Expenditure Plan but noted that elected officials have a fiduciary responsibility to review the capital and operating budget, performance of potential investments, and make prudent recommendations. Ms. Kishimoto commented that BART has been promised as a “magic bullet” by some to solve the Valley’s transportation woes but there is no such thing as a “magic bullet”. Ms. Kishimoto continued that the problem is a complex, multi-variant one and the solution is the same. BART could be part of the solution, but its cost to County taxpayers must be balanced with other needed investments and it must promise timely service to the most important destinations. Ms. Kishimoto stated that it was important to learn from past mistakes and urged the Board of Directors to think about how to make transit smarter, less expensive, and more direct so it can become an effective part of every day travel.
Noel Tebo, Citizens Advisory Committee (CAC) Member, expressed appreciation to staff for the diligent work regarding the VTA Scenario and updates. Mr. Tebo commented that the VTA Board Members have the difficult task of trying to find a way to fund all the approved projects. Mr. Tebo expressed concern regarding the BART project and noted that the details affect the entire scenario budget. Mr. Tebo commented that the goal of BART to San Jose is fine, but “the Devil is in the details,” and the public did not vote for this costly Plan. Mr. Tebo continued that the public wants a cost effective plan that is not drawn up by developers but designed by traffic engineers to maximize ridership at lower costs, to get most people to their jobs, reduce congestion, and serve more of Santa Clara County.
Chairperson Chavez queried about the next steps. Mr. Burns responded that staff will take the comments received, respond to specific questions, and provide information regarding the public meetings. Mr. Burns stated that the expectation is that the Expenditure Plan will be agendized for the March 2, 2006 VTA Board of Directors Regular Meeting.
Board Member Perry asked staff to address the concerns regarding the sales tax projections and employee wage growth. Board Member Perry noted that the CCSCE has wage growth projections for the Valley as a whole and requested that staff use that as VTA’s assumption for projecting VTA’s operator’s wages. Mr. Burns responded that the numbers that CCSCE is using are for all of the jobs in the County, and the wages driving VTA costs are the operator wages. Mr. Burns referenced the presentation and noted the point made was that the higher paying specialty-type jobs in the Valley are the jobs where wages are increasing. Mr. Burns indicated that staff will take a shot at it, but noted concerns that it may not really be relevant to VTA specifically. Mr. Burns stated that staff will ask Mr. Levy if the CCSCE has something specific for that area.
Chairperson Chavez recommended that all the information requested be sent two weeks prior to the March 2, 2006 VTA Board of Directors Regular Meeting. Chairperson Chavez requested that Steven Levy, CCSCE, be available to attend the March 2, 2006 VTA Board of Directors Regular Meeting as well as the February 2006 Standing Committees. Chairperson Chavez recommended that the questions raised at the February 2006 Standing Committees need to be responded to so that the Board Members will have a chance to review the information as quickly as possible.
Alternate Board Member Kline clarified that Board Member Kerr requested and
Mr. Burns agreed to bring back the September 2005 scenario without the ¼ cent sales tax since VTA has additional revenue projections. Mr. Burns responded “yes” that the request is the previous scenario in September or beginning October using the current projections without the ¼ cent sales tax and without the programs added over the last five or six months.
Chairperson Chavez requested that staff provide the scenario memorandum that staff generated and not the City of San Jose’s scenario recommendations in response to staff’s generated scenario. Mr. Burns asked Chairperson Chavez for clarification regarding the scenario. Chairperson Chavez responded that the request is for scenario that staff generated before responding to the City of San Jose’s recommendations.
Board Member Sandoval clarified that the document is the memorandum that the Board of Directors would have considered at the December 2, 2005 Board of Directors Regular Meeting that Board Member Kerr would like to see with the new projections. Mr. Burns responded “yes”.
Board Member Gage stressed the importance of clarity in relation to the ¼ cent sales tax regarding what is allocated for supporting the existing transit system. Board Member Gage stated that the Ad-Hoc Financial Stability Committee did discuss the importance of maintaining funding allocated to support the existing service. Board Member Gage discussed the importance of maintaining the current bus and light rail system since there are communities, such as the South County, that are dependent upon bus and light rail service. Mr. Lawson responded that one of the things that staff tried to emphasize in the presentation to the various committees and city groupings is that VTA is looking at a ¼ cent sales tax to keep service at a level that is acceptable to the community and to address shortfalls for the projects.
Board Member Gage stated that it is important to complete the projects promised to the public and address the core projects before committing to other projects.
Chairperson Chavez requested that the responses to the questions from the Board regarding the Recommended VTA Scenario and Expenditure Plan be forwarded to the February Standing Committee Meetings then at the March 2, 2006 VTA Board of Directors Regular Meeting. Chairperson Chavez requested that staff distribute the material at least two weeks in advance to the March 2, 2006 VTA Board of Directors Regular Meeting. Mr. Burns responded that the information will be provided to the Board of Directors as requested.
On order of Chairperson Chavez, there being no objection, the Recommended VTA Scenario was reviewed and discussed.
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